Market update
Simcoe County recorded 129 sales in the week of August 3 to August 9, 2026, at an average sale price of $765,460, with 8.4 months of inventory. It remains a buyer's market. The one number that genuinely moved was the list to sale price ratio, down 1 point to 95 percent.
Key takeaways
- Months of inventory rose to 8.4 from 7.8, the highest reading in the past six weeks and firmly in buyer's market territory.
- Days on market reached 50, up 3 days from 47 and up 10 days from the 40 recorded at the end of June 2026.
- The list to sale price ratio slipped 1 point to 95 percent, the clearest signal in the week and the one number that changed the seller's position.
- Supply itself barely moved. Active listings rose by 23 to 5,450 and new listings rose by 10 to 504, so months of inventory climbed on the sales side, not on a wave of new stock.
- The 8.5 percent jump in the average sale price to $765,460 came from a handful of higher priced sales inside a sample of 129, not from a broad rise in values.
On paper this looks like the strongest week of the summer. The average sale price in Simcoe County rose 8.5 percent to $765,460 while the rest of the market softened. That is the kind of line that gets screenshotted.
The real read
Only 129 homes sold. At that sample size, a few closings at the top of the market carry the whole average. That is what happened. A handful of higher end sales landed in the same seven days and pulled the number up with them. It is a composition change, not a revaluation, and nobody's home in Midland or Penetanguishene became 8.5 percent more valuable between Monday and Sunday.
Step back from that one figure and the week is remarkably ordinary. Sales eased. New listings ticked up by 10. Active inventory moved by 23 out of 5,450. The market has been running at roughly this temperature since the middle of July.
The exception is the list to sale price ratio, which slipped from 96 percent to 95. One point sounds like rounding. On an $800,000 asking price it is $8,000, and it is the same $8,000 across every negotiation happening in the county right now. Buyers pushed a little harder this week and sellers gave a little more.
The supply story
504 new listings came to market and 129 sold, yet active inventory rose by only 23. The arithmetic says roughly 350 listings left the board without a sale, the same pattern as the previous week. Homes that are not getting activity are being withdrawn rather than repriced.
That is why months of inventory reads 8.4. Supply barely grew. The figure climbed because the sales side shrank, and months of inventory is measured against the pace of sales. Days on market moved the same direction, from 47 to 50.
The bigger picture
Some of the buyers missing from the resale column did not leave the market. They bought new. BILD and the Ontario Home Builders' Association reported on August 11 that Ontario recorded 8,410 new home sales in the second quarter of 2026, a 130 percent increase over the same quarter a year earlier, and attributed 4,765 of those sales to the enhanced HST rebate on new homes priced under $1 million. Justin Sherwood, Chief Operating Officer at BILD, described it as 4,765 families who were able to buy a new home because of the program.
Note where that rebate stops. It applies below $1 million, which covers most of the Simcoe County resale market and none of the tier that lifted this week's average. A resale seller in the middle of the market is now negotiating against a new build with a tax advantage attached to it. One point off the list to sale price ratio is roughly what that looks like locally.
A buyer's market does not mean sellers lose
95 percent of asking is still 95 percent of asking. Homes are selling, and the ones that sell cleanly are the ones that came out priced to the last thirty days and properly prepared. What a 95 percent ratio and 50 days really describe is a market with no tolerance for an optimistic first list price. The cost of testing a number is now measured in weeks and in that extra point.
What this means for you
Buying: 8.4 months of inventory and a ratio moving your way. There is room at the table, and this week the market proved sellers will meet you in it.
Selling: plan for about 50 days and budget for 95 percent. Price at the front of your comparable range rather than above it, because the listings leaving the board unsold are the ones that started high.
If you are weighing a move around Midland, Penetanguishene, Tiny, Tay or Wasaga Beach before the fall, this market is workable. It simply pays for accuracy.
The week at a glance
| Metric | This week | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Sales | 129 | down 23 |
| Average Sale Price | $765,460 | up 8.5% |
| New Listings | 504 | up 10 |
| Active Listings | 5,450 | up 23 |
| Sales to New Listing Ratio | 26% | down 3 points |
| Months of Inventory | 8.4 | up from 7.8 |
| Days on Market | 50 | up 3 days |
| List to Sale Price Ratio | 95% | down 1 point |
Common questions about this market
Is it a buyer's market in Simcoe County right now?
Yes. Months of inventory sat at 8.4 in the week of August 3 to August 9, 2026, up from 7.8 the week before. Anything above six months is generally considered a buyer's market, so buyers in Simcoe County have both selection and negotiating room.
How long are homes taking to sell in Simcoe County?
Homes in Simcoe County averaged 50 days on market in the week of August 3 to August 9, 2026, up from 47 days the week before and up from 40 days at the end of June 2026.
Are home prices going up or down in Georgian Bay?
The average sale price in Simcoe County rose 8.5 percent to $765,460 in the week of August 3 to August 9, 2026, but that reflects a small number of higher priced sales inside a sample of only 129 transactions. The list to sale price ratio, which fell 1 point to 95 percent, is the better read: values are holding with slightly more negotiation.
What should sellers in Midland or Penetanguishene do in this market?
Price to the last thirty days of comparable sales, prepare the home properly before it goes live, and plan for about 50 days on market. In the week of August 3 to August 9, 2026, Simcoe County sellers settled at an average of 95 percent of their asking price.
Thinking about a move in Georgian Bay before the fall? Send me a message and we can talk through exactly what these numbers mean for your street, your timeline, and your specific home. If you have a home to sell, I can also put together a free, no-obligation valuation.
Frequently asked questions
Is it a buyer's market in Simcoe County right now?
Yes. Months of inventory sat at 8.4 in the week of August 3 to August 9, 2026, up from 7.8 the week before. Anything above six months is generally considered a buyer's market, so buyers in Simcoe County have both selection and negotiating room.
Keep reading
- Selling your home in Midland, Ontario
- The Price Drop Is Not the Story This Week. Forty-Seven Days Is.
- Selling waterfront in Tiny Township
By Jonathan Wallace, REALTOR®, Faris Team Real Estate, Brokerage. 705-433-2525. Figures are aggregated board statistics for Simcoe County and are approximate and subject to revision. Ask for current data for your specific area and property type before making a decision.