Market update · Week of October 12 to 18, 2026
The End-of-Season Deal Window Is Open. Homes That Sat All Fall Are Finally Selling.
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Simcoe County recorded 103 sales in the week of October 12 to 18, 2026, at an average sale price of $671,128, with 9.2 months of inventory. It remains a buyer's market. What moved this week was patience running out on both sides. Some listings that have been sitting a long time are finally coming together, usually on lower offers. Sellers are getting more motivated, and buyers are hunting for last-minute deals before the season closes.
Key takeaways
- Sales fell 34.4 percent to 103, and months of inventory climbed to 9.2, the highest reading of the fall.
- Days on market rose 5 to 44, and homes sold at 96 percent of asking, down a point. Older listings selling on negotiated offers fit both of those moves.
- New listings fell 17.7 percent to 404, and active listings fell by 41 to 5,194. Fewer owners are starting a listing this late in the year.
- The sales-to-new-listing ratio fell 7 points to 25 percent. About one new listing in four found a buyer.
- On the ground, buyers are still out looking. They're just choosing carefully, and many are waiting for the right home at the right number.
The real read
By mid-October, the market splits into two groups of sellers. One group listed in late summer or early fall, held firm, and watched the leaves turn. The other is just deciding whether to list at all.
This week, the first group started making deals. A seller who has been on the market for two or three months is looking at winter carrying costs, a snow-covered yard in the photos, and a spring market full of fresh competition. A buyer who has been watching that same home knows all of that too. When those two people finally talk, the deal tends to land below asking.
You can see the outline of that in the board numbers. Days on market rose to 44. The list-to-sale ratio slipped to 96 percent. Those aren't signs of buyers rushing new listings. They're signs of patient buyers closing on homes that have been waiting for them.
What you don't see is volume. 103 sales is a quiet week. The deals that happened were negotiated one at a time, not won in a crowd. That's why months of inventory climbed to 9.2 even as fewer homes were listed. The pace of sales slowed more than the supply did.
The supply side
New listings fell 17.7 percent to 404. That's the normal fall pullback. Most owners who plan to sell this year are already on the market, and most who aren't will wait for spring.
Here's the math. 404 homes came on and 103 sold, which on its own would have added about 301 homes to the board. Instead, active listings fell by 41 to 5,194. So roughly 342 listings left without selling, through expiries, cancellations, or owners taking the home off for the winter.
Months of inventory measures how long the current supply would last at the current pace of sales. Supply fell a little. Sales fell a lot. That's how you get 9.2 months with fewer homes on the board.
What buyers are telling us
Across our team's listings, the pattern this fall is steady: buyers are out looking, but looking doesn't automatically turn into an offer. The homes that sold took more showings and more time to get there than they did a few weeks ago.
That matches what I see in my own showings. Buyers are walking through homes, comparing them carefully, and writing offers only when the price and the home line up. When a buyer passes, it's usually for one of three reasons: the price, the condition or presentation, or a better value down the street. Showing feedback matters more right now than the number of showings.
Borrowing costs are part of why buyers are careful. CBC News reported that national home sales fell in September and the Canadian Real Estate Association cut its 2026 sales forecast again, pointing to higher fixed mortgage rates and an expected Bank of Canada rate hike before year-end. A buyer facing a higher rate wants more room on price, and a long-listed home is where they look for it.
A buyer's market does not mean sellers lose
The sellers who made deals this week didn't lose. They traded a long winter of carrying costs, showings and uncertainty for a firm sale and a plan. Many of them will be buying their next home in a market where they also have the advantage.
Selling at 96 percent of asking after a long run isn't a defeat. It's often the right call for that home and that owner's timeline. What costs sellers money is holding firm into the winter, expiring, and starting over in spring against a wave of new listings.
What this means for you
Buying: This is the window to look at homes that have been listed for 60 days or more. Those sellers are now more open to a conversation than they were in September. Have your financing confirmed so you can move quickly when the number works, and ask how long a home has really been for sale, including any earlier listing.
Selling: If you've been listed through the fall without an offer, look hard at the showing feedback. If buyers keep choosing other homes, the reason is usually price, condition or presentation, and those are things you can change before the season ends. If you're not listed yet, decide between a late-season buyer who is serious now and the busier spring market. Both can work. Drifting into winter by default usually doesn't.
The week at a glance
| Metric | This week | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Sales | 103 | down 34.4% |
| Average Sale Price | $671,128 | down 2.0% |
| New Listings | 404 | down 17.7% |
| Active Listings | 5,194 | down 41 |
| Sales to New Listing Ratio | 25% | down 7 points |
| Months of Inventory | 9.2 | up 1.0 |
| Days on Market | 44 | up 5 days |
| List to Sale Price Ratio | 96% | down 1 point |
Common questions about this market
Is it a buyer's market in Simcoe County right now?
Yes. Months of inventory was 9.2 for the week of October 12 to 18, 2026, up from 8.2 the week before. Anything above 6 months is a buyer's market.
Is late October a good time to buy in Georgian Bay?
It can be. Sellers who have been listed through the fall are more motivated as winter approaches, and some long-listed homes are coming together on lower offers. Homes sold at 96 percent of asking this week, down a point.
How did inventory go up if fewer homes were listed?
Months of inventory compares homes for sale to the pace of sales. New listings fell 17.7 percent, but sales fell 34.4 percent, so the existing supply would take longer to sell.
How long are homes taking to sell in Simcoe County?
Homes that sold this week took 44 days on average, up 5 days. Days on market resets when a listing is cancelled and relisted, so ask how long a home has really been for sale, including any earlier listing.
My home has been listed all fall. Should I take it off until spring?
Not automatically. Spring brings more buyers, but also more competing listings. Look at your showing feedback first. If price or presentation is the issue, fixing it now can turn a late-season buyer into a firm sale.
If you are weighing a move in Midland, Penetanguishene, Tiny or Tay, send me a message and we will look at your street rather than the county average. If you have a home to sell, a free, no-obligation valuation is the fastest way to see where your home sits.
All answers are current as of October 2026.
Weekly market hub: every Wednesday’s Georgian Bay numbers in one place.
Keep reading
- Weekly market hub
- More Homes Sold for Less on Average. They Also Sold Faster and Closer to Asking.
- What is your home worth in Georgian Bay?
- Selling your home in Midland
By Jonathan Wallace, REALTOR®, Faris Team Real Estate, Brokerage. 705-433-2525. Figures are aggregated board statistics for Simcoe County for the week shown. They are approximate and subject to revision. Not intended to solicit properties already listed for sale. REALTOR® and MLS® are trademarks owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association. Ask for current data for your specific area and property type before making a decision.