More Buyers Acted Last Week. Then Borrowing Costs Went Up.

By Jonathan Wallace, REALTOR® · Week of October 19 to 25, 2026

Simcoe County recorded 137 sales in the week of October 19 to 25, 2026, at an average sale price of $795,240, with 9.4 months of inventory. It remains a buyer's market. What moved this week was a real rebound in sales, then a Bank of Canada rate hike three days after the week closed. Those are two different clocks. Reading them as one story will get you into trouble.

Key takeaways

Sales rose 28.0 percent to 137, up from 107 the week before.
The average sale price rose 18.1 percent to $795,240. Treat that as a change in the share of sales at higher price points after a quieter week, not a county-wide value reset.
New listings rose 10.4 percent to 446. Active listings fell by 26 to 5,171.
Months of inventory edged up to 9.4, from 9.2. The sales-to-new-listing ratio rose 5 points to 31 percent. Days on market eased to 41. Homes sold at 96 percent of asking, unchanged.
On October 28, 2026, the Bank of Canada raised its overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.5 percent. A rate hike is not good news for most buyers. The board week finished before that announcement. The next offer does not.

The real read

Two things happened in close succession, and they pull in opposite directions if you ignore the dates.

First, the board week. Sales bounced from 107 to 137. Roughly one new listing in three found a buyer, up from about one in four. Days on market eased to 41 from 44. More people wrote offers that stuck.

Second, three days later, the Bank of Canada moved the overnight rate to 2.5 percent. Variable payments track prime. New fixed quotes tend to firm when the Bank tightens. The buyers who closed in the Oct 19 to 25 window were still writing against the old rate backdrop. Anyone shopping this week is not.

That is the misread to catch. An 18.1 percent jump in the average, to $795,240, after a quieter stretch near the mid-$670,000s, will get framed as "the market heated up." Pair it with the sales rebound and it looks even stronger. But months of inventory still rose to 9.4 because new listings also rose. And the payment math for the next buyer just got harder, not easier.

So: more deals cleared last week. That does not mean the next deal writes on the same terms.

The supply side

New listings rose 10.4 percent to 446. The sales-to-new-listing ratio rose 5 points to 31 percent.

Here's the math. 446 homes came on and 137 sold, which on its own would have added about 309 homes to the board. Instead, active listings fell by 26 to 5,171. Roughly 335 listings left without selling, through expiries, cancellations, or owners pulling back.

Sales recovered. Supply did too. That is how you get a rebound week and still finish at 9.4 months of inventory. The Faris Team listing read made a related point inside the brokerage: a thinner listing sheet does not automatically mean stronger demand. Buyers still have to see a reason to act. Board-wide, the same idea holds. More sales landed, but MOI did not break lower.

Months of inventory ran 8.6, 8.9, 8.6, 8.2, 9.2, then 9.4. Days on market ran 56, 49, 46, 39, 44, then 41. The rebound helped speed a little. It did not flip the balance.

The bigger picture

A rate hike is not good news, and pretending otherwise does not help anyone budget. On October 28, 2026, the Bank of Canada raised its overnight policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.5 percent, the first hike since 2023 (CBC News). Canada's major banks moved prime in step. Variable-rate holders feel it first. Buyers locking a new fixed quote will feel it in the payment they can clear.

For Georgian Bay, the practical question is narrow: what monthly payment can the next serious buyer support on the home you are pricing? Last week's average of $795,240 is a trailing number from a week that closed before the hike. Use it as context, not as tomorrow's asking price without checking the payment.

A buyer's market does not mean sellers lose

With 5,171 homes on the board, buyers still have choice. Yet 137 of them bought in that week, in 41 days on average, at 96 percent of asking. The rebound was real for the homes that matched a buyer's number.

What changes now is the buyer's worksheet. A seller who marks up off the rebound average, without testing the new payment, is negotiating against last week's conditions. A seller who shows a clear price against recent nearby solds, and leaves the buyer room to clear the new rate, still has a path to a firm deal.

What this means for you

Buying: 9.4 months of inventory still means time and options. Rebuild your payment with the new rate before you write. Ask your lender to price the deal you actually want to make this week, not the one you modeled two weeks ago. And ask how long a listing has really been live, including any earlier listing, because a cancel-and-relist resets the days-on-market clock.

Selling: Sales came back on the board week, and then rates moved. Do not treat the $795,240 average as proof your number should rise. Run the payment a typical buyer faces at 2.5 percent policy, price to what nearby homes actually closed for recently, and make the presentation match. That is how you stay in the conversation after a hike, instead of watching showings cool.

The week at a glance

Metric	This week	Change
Sales	137	up 28.0%
Average Sale Price	$795,240	up 18.1%
New Listings	446	up 10.4%
Active Listings	5,171	down 26
Sales to New Listing Ratio	31%	up 5 points
Months of Inventory	9.4	up 0.2
Days on Market	41	down 3 days
List to Sale Price Ratio	96%	unchanged

A modern dark-sided bungalow with a lit front porch at dusk beside Georgian Bay and autumn trees, titled Georgian Bay Market Update, Week of October 19 to 25, 2026.

Common questions about this market

Is it a buyer's market in Simcoe County right now?

Yes. Months of inventory was 9.4 for the week of October 19 to 25, 2026, up from 9.2. Above six months is a buyer's market on this board read.

Did the average price jump mean values rose 18 percent?

No. The average was $795,240, up 18.1 percent on the week after a quieter stretch near the mid-$670,000s. That kind of swing usually tracks a higher share of sales at upper price points in a single week. Homes still sold at 96 percent of asking, unchanged. The steadier read is that ratio, plus what sold near your address.

How does the October 28 rate hike change a deal here?

The Bank raised the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.5 percent. Variable payments move with prime. New fixed quotes often firm after a hike. Last week's solds closed before that change. Model this week's offer against the new payment, not against last week's average alone.

How long are homes taking to sell in Simcoe County?

Homes that sold in the board week took 41 days, down 3 days. Days on market resets when a listing is cancelled and relisted, so ask how long the home has really been for sale, including any earlier listing.

Should I raise my asking price because sales and the average both rose?

Not from those two numbers alone. Sales rebounded, then the policy rate rose to 2.5 percent. Price against recent nearby solds and a payment a buyer can clear after the hike. Raising the ask off the county average is how listings stall while inventory sits at 9.4 months.

If a move in Midland, Penetanguishene, Tiny or Tay is on your mind, send me a message and we will work from the homes that actually closed near you. If you want a current read on your own property, a free, no-obligation valuation is the fastest start.

All answers are current as of October 2026.

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Not intended to solicit buyers or sellers currently under contract with a brokerage.
Jonathan Wallace, REALTOR® | Faris Team Real Estate Brokerage