Market update · Week of October 5 to 11, 2026
More Homes Sold for Less on Average. They Also Sold Faster and Closer to Asking.
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Simcoe County recorded 154 sales in the week of October 5 to 11, 2026, at an average sale price of $685,928, with 8.2 months of inventory. It remains a buyer's market. What moved this week was speed: more homes sold, they sold 7 days faster, and they sold closer to asking.
Key takeaways
- Sales rose 10.8 percent to 154. New listings fell 9.2 percent to 491.
- Months of inventory eased by 0.4 to 8.2, still well above the six-month buyer's-market line.
- Days on market fell by 7 to 39.
- The sales-to-new-listing ratio rose 5 points to 31 percent, and homes sold at 97 percent of asking, up a point.
- The average sale price fell 5.0 percent to $685,928. That reflects which homes sold, not a 5 percent drop in values.
- Missed mortgage payments are rising in Ontario. As I wrote in my article on missed payments: "This is a pressure point, not a collapse."
The real read
The easy headline this week is "average price down 5 percent." The rest of the week says otherwise.
A weekly average moves with which homes happened to sell. Sales rose 10.8 percent to 154, and the average fell 5.0 percent to $685,928. More sales at a lower average usually means a bigger share of sales came from the lower-priced end of the market, not that the same homes got cheaper.
The signals that track value pointed the other way. Homes that sold traded at 97 percent of asking, up a point, and in 39 days, down 7. Neither points to buyers paying less for comparable homes.
The supply side
New listings fell 9.2 percent to 491. The sales-to-new-listing ratio rose 5 points to 31 percent. Roughly one new listing in three found a buyer.
Here's the math on what's sitting. 491 homes came on and 154 sold, which on its own would have added about 337 homes to the board. Instead, active listings fell by 7 to 5,230. Roughly 344 listings left without selling. That is why months of inventory eased to 8.2. It's still a long way above six.
The bigger picture
Earlier this month I wrote about missed mortgage payments rising in Ontario, as five-year terms from 2020 and 2021 renew at higher rates. My read then still holds: "This is a pressure point, not a collapse." The risk for us is a handful of forced sales landing in a quiet market. As I put it: "Our Georgian Bay market is smaller than Toronto's, so one sale carries more weight here."
That's why this week's firmer numbers matter. More sales and fewer new listings give a distressed sale less room to set a street's price. I wouldn't read one week as a turn. In our market, we typically see what happens in Toronto reach Georgian Bay 30 to 60 days later. For a buyer, choice is likely to hold into November. For a seller, pricing to this fall's buyer matters more than waiting for a bounce.
I expect the market to stay fairly steady from here. Late October and early November sales typically depend not only on the market, but also on the weather. If we're blessed with no snow through October and it holds off until late November, it will reward sellers. If we get a hard early winter, it will turn the momentum tap off as people naturally start to hibernate.
A buyer's market doesn't mean sellers lose
With 5,230 homes on the board, buyers have choice and time. Yet 154 of them bought this week, in 39 days, at 97 percent of asking. Buyers aren't refusing to buy. They're refusing to overpay.
What this means for you
Buying: 8.2 months of inventory still gives you room to negotiate, but well-priced homes are moving faster than a month ago. Have financing ready, and ask how long a home has really been on the market, including any earlier listing.
Selling: Fewer competing listings came on this week, and sold homes went closer to asking. That only helps if your price matches the last 30 to 60 days of sales. If you're thinking of selling and aren't quite ready, now's the time to have your Realtor take your fall photos, before the leaves drop and exteriors start to look drab.
The week at a glance
| Metric | This week | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Sales | 154 | up 10.8% |
| Average Sale Price | $685,928 | down 5.0% |
| New Listings | 491 | down 9.2% |
| Active Listings | 5,230 | down 7 |
| Sales to New Listing Ratio | 31% | up 5 points |
| Months of Inventory | 8.2 | down 0.4 |
| Days on Market | 39 | down 7 days |
| List to Sale Price Ratio | 97% | up 1 point |
Common questions about this market
Is it a buyer's market in Simcoe County right now?
Yes. Months of inventory was 8.2 for the week of October 5 to 11, 2026, down 0.4 on the week. Anything above 6 months is a buyer's market, so buyers still hold the advantage.
Are home prices going up or down in Georgian Bay?
The average sale price was $685,928, down 5.0% on the week, but a weekly average moves with which homes sold. Homes sold at 97% of asking, up 1 point, which does not point to buyers paying less for comparable homes.
How long are homes taking to sell in Simcoe County?
Homes that sold this week took 39 days, down 7 days on the week. Days on market resets when a listing is cancelled and relisted, so ask how long a home has really been for sale, including any earlier listing.
What should sellers in Midland or Penetanguishene do in this market?
Price to the last 30 to 60 days of sales, not to spring expectations. New listings fell 9.2% this week and sold homes went for 97% of asking, so a home priced to recent sales and presented well is competing with fewer new listings.
Does the national housing market matter for Georgian Bay?
Yes, as backdrop. Missed mortgage payments are rising in Ontario, and as I wrote earlier this month, "This is a pressure point, not a collapse." In our market, we typically see Toronto shifts reach Georgian Bay 30 to 60 days later.
Fall on Georgian Bay is when the next market forms. If you are weighing a move in Midland, Penetanguishene, Tiny or Tay, send me a message and we will look at your street rather than the county average. If you have a home to sell, a free, no-obligation valuation is the fastest way to see where your home sits.
All answers are current as of October 2026.
Weekly market hub: every Wednesday’s Georgian Bay numbers in one place.
Keep reading
- Weekly market hub
- Fewer Sales and a Lower Average Price. Inventory Didn't Move an Inch.
- What is your home worth in Georgian Bay?
- Selling your home in Midland
By Jonathan Wallace, REALTOR®, Faris Team Real Estate, Brokerage. 705-433-2525. Figures are aggregated board statistics for Simcoe County for the week shown. They are approximate and subject to revision. Not intended to solicit properties already listed for sale. REALTOR® and MLS® are trademarks owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association. Ask for current data for your specific area and property type before making a decision.