Market update
Fewer Homes Sold This Week. The Ones That Did Got Closer to Asking.
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Simcoe County recorded 144 sales in the week of September 21 to 27, 2026, at an average sale price of $793,403, with 8.9 months of inventory. It remains a buyer's market. Both buyers and sellers were quieter this week. The homes that did sell sold faster and closer to their asking price.
Key takeaways
- Months of inventory rose 0.3 to 8.9, still well above the six-month buyer's-market line.
- Sales fell 10.6 percent to 144, and new listings fell 16.1 percent to 506. Active listings still grew by 26 to 5,435.
- A little more than one new listing in four found a buyer. The sales-to-new-listing ratio improved 1 point to 28 percent.
- The average sale price rose 9.9 percent to $793,403. That reflects which homes sold more than a change in what homes are worth.
- Homes that sold took about 49 days, 7 fewer than the week before, and traded at 97 percent of asking, up a point.
The real read
The easy headline is "sales down, prices up." Neither half tells you much on its own.
Fewer homes sold, and fewer owners listed. New listings dropped 16.1 percent, the sharpest move on the board this week. The fall listing push that outran buyers for two straight weeks paused.
The average sale price jumped 9.9 percent to $793,403. That doesn't mean homes gained nearly 10 percent in value in seven days. A week with a different mix of sales moves the average, and this week's mix leaned higher. Read it next to the list-to-sale ratio, which is the steadier signal.
The supply side
Even with fewer new listings, inventory kept building. Active listings rose by 26 to 5,435, and months of inventory rose 0.3 to 8.9.
At a 28 percent sales-to-new-listing ratio, most new listings still join the board rather than leave it. Buyers have plenty to choose from, and they know it.
The bigger picture
Part of the reason buyers are moving carefully is the cost of borrowing. The Globe and Mail reported this week that the Canada five-year bond yield hit a two-year high of 3.72 percent. Lenders price long-term fixed mortgages off that bond, and fixed rates have climbed more than 0.25 percent in the past month, approaching the mid-4-percent range.
The Canadian Real Estate Association has also downgraded its forecast for 2026 and 2027, in part because of the rate outlook. Early in the year it was calling for modest gains.
A buyer who qualified comfortably in the spring may qualify for less this fall. In our market, what happens in Toronto and nationally typically reaches Georgian Bay 30 to 60 days later. Rising fixed rates are worth planning around now, not in November.
A buyer's market doesn't mean sellers lose
144 homes sold this week at 97 percent of asking, a point better than the week before. Homes that sold took about 49 days, 7 fewer than last week.
That's the split this market keeps showing. With 5,435 homes available, the average listing waits. Well-priced, well-presented homes don't. Buyers aren't refusing to buy. They're refusing to overpay.
What this means for you
Buying: 8.9 months of inventory gives you time and negotiating room. Rising fixed rates are the one thing working against you, so get your pre-approval current and know your number before you fall for a house.
Selling: Fewer new listings this week is a small window, not a trend. Price to the last 30 to 60 days of sales, present the home better than the competition, and you can land in the 97 percent group. Price to the spring, and you join the 5,435.
The week at a glance
| Metric | This week | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Sales | 144 | down 10.6% |
| Average Sale Price | $793,403 | up 9.9% |
| New Listings | 506 | down 16.1% |
| Active Listings | 5,435 | up 26 |
| Sales to New Listing Ratio | 28% | up 1 point |
| Months of Inventory | 8.9 | up 0.3 |
| Days on Market | 49 | down 7 days |
| List to Sale Price Ratio | 97% | up 1 point |
Common questions about this market
Is it a buyer's market in Simcoe County right now?
Yes. At 8.9 months of inventory for the week of September 21 to 27, 2026, buyers hold the advantage. Above six months is the usual buyer's-market line on this board read, and inventory rose 0.3 on the week.
Are home prices going up or down in Georgian Bay?
The average sale price in Simcoe County was $793,403 in the week of September 21 to 27, 2026, up 9.9 percent on the week. Weekly averages move with the mix of homes that sell, so the steadier read is the list to sale price ratio, which rose to 97 percent. Homes priced to the market are holding their value. The softness is at the margins, where listings are priced above recent sales.
How long are homes taking to sell in Simcoe County?
Homes that sold this week traded in about 49 days, 7 days fewer than the week before. That number is easy to misread.
Days on market doesn't show price cuts over the last year, or whether the seller cancelled and relisted. Every cancel-and-relist restarts the clock at zero. Look into the history and plenty of these homes sat 180 to 500 days before the price moved into a range that brought a buyer. The 49-day figure is the last chapter, not the whole book.
If you're comparing a sold home on your street, ask two questions first: how long was it listed in total, and was it listed earlier at a higher price?
What should sellers in Midland or Penetanguishene do in this market?
Price to the last 30 to 60 days of evidence, not to last spring, and don't settle for the middle of the pack. With 5,435 homes to choose from, buyers pick the best value for the money. That's what gets a home into the 97 percent list-to-sale group.
Does the national housing market matter for Georgian Bay?
It sets the backdrop. The Globe and Mail reported on September 28, 2026, that fixed mortgage rates rose more than 0.25 percent in a month, approaching the mid-4-percent range, and that CREA downgraded its 2026 and 2027 forecast. Higher borrowing costs shrink what buyers can spend, and in our market we typically see national shifts arrive 30 to 60 days later.
Fall on Georgian Bay is when the next market forms. If you are weighing a move in Midland, Penetanguishene, Tiny, Tay or Wasaga Beach, send me a message and we will look at your street rather than the county average. If you have a home to sell, a free, no-obligation valuation is the fastest way to see which band your home sits in.
All answers are current as of September 2026.
Weekly market hub: every Wednesday’s Georgian Bay numbers in one place.
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By Jonathan Wallace, REALTOR®, Faris Team Real Estate, Brokerage. 705-433-2525. Figures are aggregated board statistics for Simcoe County for the week shown. They are approximate and subject to revision. Not intended to solicit properties already listed for sale. REALTOR® and MLS® are trademarks owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association. Ask for current data for your specific area and property type before making a decision.