Market update
Fewer Sales and a Lower Average Price. Inventory Didn't Move an Inch.
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Simcoe County recorded 131 sales in the week of September 28 to October 4, 2026, at an average sale price of $721,684, with 8.9 months of inventory. It remains a buyer's market. Sales and the average price both fell, but months of inventory held at 8.9 for the second straight week, and active listings went down, not up.
Key takeaways
- Months of inventory held at 8.9 for the second straight week, well above the six-month buyer's-market line.
- Sales fell 16.6 percent to 131. New listings rose 4.7 percent to 530.
- Active listings fell by 198 to 5,237, even with more new listings coming on.
- The sales-to-new-listing ratio fell 5 points to 23 percent. Fewer than one new listing in four found a buyer.
- The average sale price fell 8.6 percent to $721,684, while homes that sold still traded at 96 percent of asking, unchanged. The average reflects which homes sold more than a change in what homes are worth.
The real read
The easy headline this week is "sales down, prices down." Put those two together and it sounds like the market slipped. It didn't, at least not in the way that headline suggests.
Start with the average sale price. It fell 8.6 percent to $721,684. Last week it rose 9.9 percent. Homes in Simcoe County did not gain 10 percent in value one week and give most of it back the next. A weekly average moves with which homes happened to sell. Last week leaned higher. This week leaned lower.
The steadier signal is the list-to-sale ratio. Homes that sold traded at 96 percent of asking, the same as the week before. If buyers were suddenly paying much less for comparable homes, that number would move. It didn't.
One note on continuity. Last week's post reported 144 sales at an average of $793,403. The board's figures for that week have since been updated to 157 sales at $789,757, and this week's 16.6 percent and 8.6 percent changes are measured against those updated figures.
The supply side
This is the part of the week that moved, and it moved in an unexpected direction.
530 new listings came on and 131 homes sold. Sales alone would have pushed the active count up by about 400. Instead, active listings fell by 198 to 5,237. That means close to 600 listings left the board this week without selling. Some expired, some were cancelled, and some owners decided to wait for spring.
That's why months of inventory held at 8.9 instead of climbing. It wasn't buyers who kept inventory steady. It was sellers stepping back.
At a 23 percent sales-to-new-listing ratio, buyers still have plenty of choice. Fewer than one new listing in four found a buyer this week, down from 28 percent the week before.
The bigger picture
Toronto had the same kind of September. CBC News reported on October 6 that GTA home sales fell 9 percent from a year ago to 5,040, the average selling price fell to $1,006,409 from $1,060,036, and new listings fell 14.4 percent. The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board described buyers as being "in a holding pattern" over the economy, inflation and borrowing costs.
The same report quotes TRREB's president on the October 26 municipal election shaping housing policy "across the GTA and Simcoe County for the next four years."
In our market, what happens in Toronto usually shows up on Georgian Bay 30 to 60 days later. A softer GTA September tells me the buyer pool coming north this fall is likely to stay careful. Toronto-area owners who planned to sell and buy up here are waiting on their own sale, and that slows the chain at our end.
A buyer's market doesn't mean sellers lose
131 homes sold this week at 96 percent of asking. With 5,237 homes on the board and 8.9 months of inventory, buyers have every reason to take their time. Most of them did. The ones who bought still paid close to asking for the right home.
That's the split this market keeps showing. The average listing waits, and a lot of listings gave up this week. Well-priced, well-presented homes still sell. Buyers aren't refusing to buy. They're refusing to overpay.
What this means for you
Buying: 8.9 months of inventory gives you time and room to negotiate, and you don't need to rush. Use the quiet weeks to look at homes that have been sitting, and ask how long each one has really been on the market, including any earlier listing.
Selling: Close to 600 listings left the board this week without selling. Don't become part of next week's number. Price to the last 30 to 60 days of sales, not to the spring, and present the home better than the competition. That's how you land in the 96 percent group.
The week at a glance
| Metric | This week | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Sales | 131 | down 16.6% |
| Average Sale Price | $721,684 | down 8.6% |
| New Listings | 530 | up 4.7% |
| Active Listings | 5,237 | down 198 |
| Sales to New Listing Ratio | 23% | down 5 points |
| Months of Inventory | 8.9 | no change (second straight week) |
| Days on Market | 46 | down 3 days from 49 |
| List to Sale Price Ratio | 96% | no change |
Common questions about this market
Is it a buyer's market in Simcoe County right now?
Yes. At 8.9 months of inventory for the week of September 28 to October 4, 2026, buyers hold the advantage. Above six months is the usual buyer's-market line, and this is the second straight week at 8.9.
Did home prices drop 8.6 percent in one week?
No. The average sale price fell 8.6 percent to $721,684, but a weekly average moves with which homes happened to sell. The week before, it rose 9.9 percent. The steadier read is the list-to-sale ratio, which held at 96 percent. Homes priced to the market are holding their value. The softness is at the margins, where listings are priced above recent sales.
Why did active listings fall when new listings went up?
Because a lot of listings left the board without selling. 530 homes came on and 131 sold, yet active listings still fell by 198. That works out to close to 600 listings that expired, were cancelled or were pulled this week. Fall is when many listing agreements signed in the spring run out, and some owners decide to wait.
How long are homes taking to sell in Simcoe County?
Homes that sold this week traded in 46 days, down 3 days from 49 the week before. Days on market doesn't show price cuts over the last year, or whether the seller cancelled and relisted. Every cancel-and-relist restarts the clock at zero. If you're comparing a sold home on your street, ask two questions: how long was it listed in total, and was it listed earlier at a higher price?
Does the Toronto market matter for Midland, Penetanguishene, Tiny and Tay?
Yes. It sets the backdrop. CBC News reported on October 6, 2026, that GTA sales fell 9 percent from a year ago in September and the average price fell to $1,006,409. In our market, we usually see Toronto shifts arrive 30 to 60 days later, so a careful GTA buyer this fall is likely a careful buyer on Georgian Bay through November.
Fall on Georgian Bay is when the next market forms. If you are weighing a move in Midland, Penetanguishene, Tiny or Tay, send me a message and we will look at your street rather than the county average. If you have a home to sell, a free, no-obligation valuation is the fastest way to see where your home sits.
All answers are current as of October 2026.
Weekly market hub: every Wednesday’s Georgian Bay numbers in one place.
Keep reading
- Weekly market hub
- Fewer Homes Sold This Week. The Ones That Did Got Closer to Asking.
- What is your home worth in Georgian Bay?
- Selling your home in Midland
By Jonathan Wallace, REALTOR®, Faris Team Real Estate, Brokerage. 705-433-2525. Figures are aggregated board statistics for Simcoe County for the week shown. They are approximate and subject to revision. Not intended to solicit properties already listed for sale. REALTOR® and MLS® are trademarks owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association. Ask for current data for your specific area and property type before making a decision.